Led by state-run banks which are set to report increased strains on asset quality, the banking sector is set to see net profits decline by 11 percent in Q1 as compared to the last quarter of 2011-12, says a StanChart Securities report.
For the banking system a new cycle starts in FY2024. It's fraught with fresh challenges on asset quality and profitability, warns Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Bank of Baroda (BoB) has made prudential provision of Rs 500 crore for exposure to Go First, which has sought bankruptcy protection after the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) admitted its plea for voluntary insolvency. Sanjiv Chadha, managing director and chief executive officer of BoB, said the bank identifies issues in advance and makes provisions if required. The Mumbai-based public sector lender has an exposure of Rs 1,300 crore to the troubled airline.
Moody's expects that India will record the GDP growth of around 7.5 per cent in 2015 and 2016.
Rising bad loans continued to haunt public sector banks (PSBs) in the March 2016 quarter.
Domestic commercial-vehicle (CV) sales volume will witness significant growth over the next few years and the overall CV volume is likely to reach close to 1-million units by FY24, a report said on Wednesday. The report by credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings also expects growing demand and the resultant rise in operating leverage to boost the profitability of the domestic CV-focused original equipment manufacturers after FY22, despite elevated production costs. A recovery in medium and heavy CVs from multi-year lows, along with sustained growth in light CV categories, will help overall CV volume to reach close to 1-million units by FY24 - the level of the last cyclical peak recorded in FY19, it said.
Do not, however, enter expecting quick returns.
Net profit rose to Rs 1,982 crore (Rs 19.82 billion) in the quarter ended September 30 from about Rs 1,560 crore (Rs 15.6 billion) a year earlier, the bank said on Tuesday. Net interest income grew nearly 15% to Rs 4,480 crore (Rs 44.8 billion).
Private sector banks reported a robust profile with healthy growth in net interest income (NII), credit offtake and reduction in provision burden for the fourth quarter ended March 2023 (Q4 of FY23). However, as a pack, their net profit declined by 9.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) at Rs 25,317 crore in Q4. This is because Axis Bank posted losses due to its one-time hefty charge for the acquisition of Citibank India's consumer business.
'We found certain banks having lakhs of such accounts with apparently no valid reason.'
Commercial banks in the country continued with their improving asset quality trend in the October-December 2021 quarter with slippages remaining under control coupled with healthy recoveries and upgradation of asset classification. The 28-listed banks reported improvement in bottom line with net profits rising 64.1 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and 21.5 per cent sequentially. This is mostly on account of a fall in provisions and contingencies.
According to the RBI's Financial Stability Report, the industry's gross bad-loan is at a 14-year high. As RBI's March 2017 deadline for banks to clean up soured credit looms closer, Shailajanand Mishra takes stock of just how bad the situation is.
What stood out in his 15-year journey as a member of the political executive at the Centre was his glowing record as India's most successful and effective finance minister. Both as prime minister and finance minister, he understood the importance of gradualism, except when the economy or the polity was in a crisis.
The stress in the banking sector, which mirrors the stress in the corporate sector, has to be dealt with in order to revive credit growth.
Nifty50's earnings growth, estimated at 20 per cent by global research and brokerage firm Jefferies for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), will be amongst the top three in the Asian region, and is likely to outperform peers. Asean 40 index with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth and Straits Times Index (STI) with 29.1 per cent estimated earnings growth are the only two other indices in the Asian region that are likely to outperform India, suggests the recent Jefferies report, coauthored by Mahesh Nandurkar, their managing director along with Abhinav Sinha and Nishant Poddar.
Axis Bank on Thursday reported a 54 per cent jump in its standalone net profit to Rs 4,117.77 crore for the quarter ended March 2022. The country's third-largest private sector lender had posted a net profit of Rs 2,677.06 crore in the year-ago period. The total income (standalone) rose to Rs 21,999.58 crore in the January-March period of 2021-22 against Rs 19,035.12 crore in the same period of 2020-21, Axis Bank said in a regulatory filing. For the full 2021-22, the net profit nearly doubled to Rs 13,025.48 crore from Rs 6,588.50 crore in 2020-21.
'We have got enough internal accruals, and we are able to do acquisitions on our own.'
Report says stressed asset level to peak at 15% in 2014-15.
Anil Agarwal-owned Vedanta Resources (VRL), which has hired Standard Chartered Bank to raise funds for its Konkola copper mine assets, says it is engaging with several potential partners for both short-term funds and long-term equity financing for the Zambian project. A Vedanta official said its commitment to optimising capital allocation and driving expansion is a key cornerstone of its strategy for the mines. It will enhance value creation and operationalise the Konkola Copper Mines (KCM).
Among index funds, the most popular products are funds tracking the Nifty 50 and Sensex, says Dwaipayan Bose, and explains the finer points of selecting the right index mutual fund.
The cash pile within smallcap mutual fund (MF) schemes has grown over the past few months amid a relentless rally in stocks in this space. While fund managers usually don't make cash calls, incessant inflows and valuation discomfort have forced their hand. At the end of January, the top 10 schemes had over Rs 12,160 crore in cash, compared to Rs 8,700 crore in August 2023.
'The ship has been stabilised.' 'For the last 6-7 quarters, profitability is stable around Rs 250-Rs 300 crore.'
Given gains in equity prices, it is not surprising that the earnings of asset management companies (AMCs) are growing quicker. The earnings momentum looks set to continue. Good fund performances have thus led to AMC earnings upgrades although valuations are high. Recent market performance and net flow trends have led to earnings upgrades by between 3-8 per cent for FY25-27.
The Information Support Force was regarded as the revised version of the PLA's Strategic Support Force, established in 2015 by the Chinese military to deal with space, cyber, political and electronic warfare to fight what was described as "informationised wars".
SBI, which accounts for a quarter of the country's loans and deposits, said on Wednesday its net profit fell 35 per cent to Rs 2,375 crore (Rs 23.75 billion) in the quarter ended September.
>It's not easy to predict the market. But there are at least two positive factors to back the PSU banks, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC) chairman Deepak Parekh on Tuesday said that while the country's macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong and the recovery is in progress, the unpredictability of coronavirus will remain a key challenge. Owing to the second wave, the Indian economy is likely to mirror a similar trend seen in FY21, where the first half of the financial year is weaker and the second half is significantly stronger, he said. "I remain confident that India's macroeconomic fundamentals are strong. Recovery is underway," Parekh said while addressing the 44th annual general meeting of HDFC Ltd. He said, the country's forex reserves and foreign direct investment inflows have scaled record highs, the capital markets are also buoyant and agriculture growth is expected to remain strong with food grain production estimated at over 305 million tonnes.
'More than investors, fund houses, and advisors have raised caution and limited flows on small-and mid-caps.'
While banks are busy firming up business plans for 2008-09, some of them have already conveyed to the Reserve Bank of India about prospects of a moderation in the credit growth. In March, many banks held talks with RBI on resource conditions and growth prospects. In fact, Bank of India has already scaled down the estimate for the current financial year to 17-18 per cent compared with the 24 per cent rise it had targeted in the just-concluded financial year.
Fitch Ratings has affirmed ICICI Bank's ratings at 'BB+' with a negative outlook and retained the lender's viability rating at BB. The negative outlook comes despite the agency recently revising upwards the operating environment outlook of domestic banks to stable from negative, citing better than expected recovery in business and economic activity following the COVID-19 second wave. Economic momentum and regulatory measures should support modest improvements in the domestic banks' financial profiles over the next 12-24 months, even though challenges remain the agency said in a late Monday note.
IDFC First Bank delivered good results in the first quarter of this financial year (Q1FY24), but some analysts are concerned the bank is fully-valued. So, there has been profit-booking after a price rise. Growth went side-by-side with a focus on cutting interest costs and exposure to high non-performing infrastructure loans. The mortgage book is 28 per cent, of which 24 per cent is home loans and loans against property.
'Fiscal purists would quarrel with the idea of selling assets to pay for current expenditure -- such as the payout to farmers and the health insurance programme -- for the obvious reason that the process cannot go on forever.' 'At some point, the list of assets available for sale will run out,' notes T N Ninan.consultations -- something already aired in connection with the lease of airports to the Adani group, says T N Ninan.
'Like every Budget, this time, too, there is chatter around tinkering with the long-term capital gains tax.' 'Investors may not want to jump into the markets until there is clarity on this front.'
Funding winter and corporate governance woes separated the men from the boys in the country's startup space in 2023 that saw funds into the segment tapering to just around $8 billion. All said, investors are hopeful of strong growth of the maturing startup ecosystem in the new year. Edtech and health tech segments that grew exponentially during the pandemic plunged into an abyss of financial uncertainties, with several firms shuttering their business, and valuation of prominent players like BYJU'S and PharmEasy plummeting 85-90 per cent.
After showing a consistent rise in the previous 4 quarters, gross NPAs of 40 listed bank declined to Rs 10.03 trillion at the end of June 2018, from Rs 10.25 trillion in the previous quarter.
Bank credit offtake is expected to pick up following normalisation of economic activities aided by the government thrust on public expenditure in current fiscal year, a report said. According to the Care Edge report, the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio hit a six-year low of 5.9 per cent in FY22 but remained above the pre-asset quality review of 2015-16. However, it said, India's NPA ratio is one of the highest among the comparable countries despite gradual decline.
'It is nice that the banking system is in good shape.' 'It is a little early to call it too good because I think it was too bad in the past.'
Bankruptcy Code will consolidate existing laws related to liquidation and sick industries
The management, however, is a bit wary about near-term performance.
